Red Hot Market, Tapped Out Consumer

Red Hot Market, Tapped Out Consumer

Monday, November 17, 2025 The S&P 500 has now gone 103 straight trading sessions without a 5% pullback, as of this writing. It’s the second longest streak since 2021 and among the longest since the 2018 record of 403 sessions. For perspective, the long-term...
Investors are Missing the Real Impacts of Tariffs

Investors are Missing the Real Impacts of Tariffs

Monday, July 14 The tariff pause has pushed stocks up, pleasing investors. However, President Trump’s tariffs did nothing but stoke a flame that was already burning. We’re seemingly already in the early stages of a recession, and tariffs will only make...
Kicking the Can Down the Road

Kicking the Can Down the Road

Monday, July 7 On April 8, President Trump paused all reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. That is set to expire on July 8. As of this writing, the only trade deal we know about is with the U.K. That said, there may also be a deal with China, perhaps including 55% tariffs....
Tensions in the Sand Pile

Tensions in the Sand Pile

Monday, June 9 At the bottom of an hourglass, the pile of sand grows with each new grain. The cone shape looks stable, but it’s not. Under the surface, instable paths form that will eventually trigger a collapse once there’s enough weight. Markets and economies...
A Warning Sign from Consumers

A Warning Sign from Consumers

May 26, 2025 People have their favorite ways to evaluate economics. But I suggest you forget the twists of tariff policy and what pundits are saying on the news to instead focus on one thing. This one thing will help you gauge the health of the economy and influence...