The Federal Reserve’s Tools Might Be Ineffective

The Federal Reserve’s Tools Might Be Ineffective

May 12, 2025 The economy in the 2020s has not been boring. We’ve had a pandemic and inflation already. Now we have a trade war, recession fears, maybe more inflation, and capital flying out of U.S. dollar assets. In the past, the Federal Reserve would often step in to...
Stocks Were Bound to Correct

Stocks Were Bound to Correct

May 5, 2025 A lot has happened in the markets in 2025. But the truth is stocks were due to fall, whether from tariffs or something else. Not long ago, the stock market was trading at the highest prices measured against earnings. Stocks were more expensive than in 1929...
Wall Street Is Bad at Predictions

Wall Street Is Bad at Predictions

April 21, 2025 In 2022, Wall Street predicted stocks would rise 5%. Stocks fell 18%. In 2023, for seemingly the first time ever, Wall Street predicted stocks would fall. Instead, the S&P 500 soared 26%. In 2024, Wall Street aimed too low again, forecasting the...
Is This a Bubble?

Is This a Bubble?

March 24, 2025 In this century’s first decade, investors had an opportunity to participate in and lose money due to two spectacular bubbles. The first was the technology-driven dot-com bubble of the late 1990s that began bursting in the mid-2000s. The second was the...
The “Wealth Effect”

The “Wealth Effect”

March 17, 2025 Many folks are experiencing a “wealth effect” where they feel rich because the values of their homes and investment portfolios have risen, causing them to spend more. Technically, the “wealth effect” is when spending jumps because assets have increased....