Monday, February 2, 2026
Maybe now is the time to be contrarian.
Typically, when everyone on Wall Street agrees on something, we rush to do the exact opposite. That’s because Wall Street has a history of going all-in at exactly the right time.
After COVID, money flew to disruptive, innovative tech companies, regardless of profits. The poster child was Kathy Wood’s Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK), which everyone loved until it fell 76% from late 2021 through 2022:
And that’s just one example. Investors bought technology stocks before the crashes in 2000 and 2008 too.
That said, betting against Wall Street’s 2026 outlook (i.e., stocks will rise) may not be the best strategy. While I am contrarian, I’m a little optimistic too.
Wall Street analysts have always run as a herd, usually tilting bullish. This year, Bloomberg tracked 21 analysts for the S&P 500. All 21 think the stock market will rise this year, ranging from a 2% gain to a 17% jump.
Meanwhile, unemployment is rising, though that’s sometimes good for stocks because it leads to lower interest rates. Even with signs of weakness though, people are confident. They’re not euphoric though, which is expected near market peaks.
Plus, market concentration in just a handful of stocks hasn’t proven to be an issue. Looking at market breadth via the advance/decline line of the New York Stock Exchange, it rose all through 2025 alongside markets. Thus, no divergence is in sight.
So, the worry is about a future where most stocks fall, but indexes rise. That’s a bright red flag. But data shows we aren’t there yet. So, while it will pay to be a contrarian in the future at some point, we’re not there yet.
Daniel A. White is an investment advisory representative of and provides advisory services through CoreCap Advisors, LLC. Daniel A. White & Associates and CoreCap Advisors are separate and unaffiliated entities.