Inflation Could Kill the AI Trade

Inflation Could Kill the AI Trade

Monday, November 9, 2026 History shows us how sudden increases in inflation can destroy bull markets. For example, in 1972 investors believed the “Nifty Fifty” could never fail. This was a group of about 50 large, “blue-chip” companies that would grow forever. They...
A Stealth Bear Market

A Stealth Bear Market

Monday, November 2, 2026 The S&P 500 is up this year. As of this writing, the gain is about 14% so far, including dividends. That’s only about 2% below the all-time high as the index is trading at just 21 times the current year’s earnings. But the story changes...
The Party Will Go On, Right?

The Party Will Go On, Right?

Monday, October 26, 2026 This is by far the longest period of prosperity in U.S. history – over 17 years. There hasn’t been a real downturn or credit default cycle since the global financial crisis and recession that ended in 2009. And it’s still happening –...
Investment Wisdom Maybe Not So Wise

Investment Wisdom Maybe Not So Wise

Monday, October 19, 2026 The 60-40 portfolio, which for a long time has been a “set it and forget it” way to generate long-term wealth, is kind of dead. Well, the 40 side of it is hurting at least. Traditionally, a “60-40” investment portfolio has 60% of its holdings...
History Happens Again and Again

History Happens Again and Again

Monday, October 12, 2026 I don’t know who said it, but I love this quote: “There are decades when nothing happens, and then there are weeks when decades happen.” I love it because it focuses on how quickly meaningful moments unfold. For instance, on Oct.19, 1987, the...
A Higher-For-Longer Situation

A Higher-For-Longer Situation

Monday, October 5, 2026 Here’s some good news – federal tax revenues keep increasing. But there’s bad news too. Spending is increasing faster than the revenue. The U.S. collected a record $5.23 trillion in tax revenue in fiscal 2025, which was an increase of 6.4% from...