Wall Street Is Bad at Predictions

Wall Street Is Bad at Predictions

April 21, 2025 In 2022, Wall Street predicted stocks would rise 5%. Stocks fell 18%. In 2023, for seemingly the first time ever, Wall Street predicted stocks would fall. Instead, the S&P 500 soared 26%. In 2024, Wall Street aimed too low again, forecasting the...
Indicators Say We’re Headed for a Recession

Indicators Say We’re Headed for a Recession

April 14, 2025 The real economy isn’t doing well. Investors cheered when the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate last year. But inflation is still stubbornly high, and the interest rate that matters most – the 10-year Treasury yield –...
Is This a Bubble?

Is This a Bubble?

March 24, 2025 In this century’s first decade, investors had an opportunity to participate in and lose money due to two spectacular bubbles. The first was the technology-driven dot-com bubble of the late 1990s that began bursting in the mid-2000s. The second was the...
The “Wealth Effect”

The “Wealth Effect”

March 17, 2025 Many folks are experiencing a “wealth effect” where they feel rich because the values of their homes and investment portfolios have risen, causing them to spend more. Technically, the “wealth effect” is when spending jumps because assets have increased....