Every Trump Trade Deal is Temporary

Every Trump Trade Deal is Temporary

Monday, June 30 You may have noticed some recent changes in U.S. trade policy. Wall Street calmed down a bit after the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily reduce the astronomical tariff rates they imposed on each other, pending further negotiations. Same with Europe....
Don’t Expect a V-Shaped Bottom

Don’t Expect a V-Shaped Bottom

May 19, 2025 Serious damage has been done to markets. The S&P 500 fell 21% by mid-April from its all-time high. Similarly, the Invesco QQQ Trust exchange-traded fund, which tracks big technology companies, has plunged 26%. Both major indices are now well below...
Indicators Say We’re Headed for a Recession

Indicators Say We’re Headed for a Recession

April 14, 2025 The real economy isn’t doing well. Investors cheered when the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate last year. But inflation is still stubbornly high, and the interest rate that matters most – the 10-year Treasury yield –...
An Early Warning Indicator of Market Turbulence

An Early Warning Indicator of Market Turbulence

January 27, 2025 The U.S. stock market had one of its best years ever last year. As of this writing, the S&P 500 was up over 25% for 2024. It marks two consecutive years the S&P 500 had 20% gains or more. If it does it in 2025 too, it’ll be only the...