Gradually, then Suddenly

Gradually, then Suddenly

Monday, July 28 The U.S. bond market is flashing red. Using the Bloomberg U.S. aggregate bond index as a proxy, bonds are in their longest bear market in nearly 50 years. Data shows the maximum decline in that period is only 17.2%, however. That’s because the index...
A House of Cards Waiting to Fall

A House of Cards Waiting to Fall

Monday, July 21 Is the recession already here? Thanks to years of high inflation and interest rates, even Americans with jobs are struggling to pay for necessities. Consumer staples prices have soared. Everyone knows about the price of eggs, which have nearly tripled...
Every Trump Trade Deal is Temporary

Every Trump Trade Deal is Temporary

Monday, June 30 You may have noticed some recent changes in U.S. trade policy. Wall Street calmed down a bit after the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily reduce the astronomical tariff rates they imposed on each other, pending further negotiations. Same with Europe....
Don’t Expect a V-Shaped Bottom

Don’t Expect a V-Shaped Bottom

May 19, 2025 Serious damage has been done to markets. The S&P 500 fell 21% by mid-April from its all-time high. Similarly, the Invesco QQQ Trust exchange-traded fund, which tracks big technology companies, has plunged 26%. Both major indices are now well below...
Indicators Say We’re Headed for a Recession

Indicators Say We’re Headed for a Recession

April 14, 2025 The real economy isn’t doing well. Investors cheered when the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate last year. But inflation is still stubbornly high, and the interest rate that matters most – the 10-year Treasury yield –...