Don’t Expect a V-Shaped Bottom

Don’t Expect a V-Shaped Bottom

May 19, 2025 Serious damage has been done to markets. The S&P 500 fell 21% by mid-April from its all-time high. Similarly, the Invesco QQQ Trust exchange-traded fund, which tracks big technology companies, has plunged 26%. Both major indices are now well below...
The Federal Reserve’s Tools Might Be Ineffective

The Federal Reserve’s Tools Might Be Ineffective

May 12, 2025 The economy in the 2020s has not been boring. We’ve had a pandemic and inflation already. Now we have a trade war, recession fears, maybe more inflation, and capital flying out of U.S. dollar assets. In the past, the Federal Reserve would often step in to...
Indicators Say We’re Headed for a Recession

Indicators Say We’re Headed for a Recession

April 14, 2025 The real economy isn’t doing well. Investors cheered when the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate last year. But inflation is still stubbornly high, and the interest rate that matters most – the 10-year Treasury yield –...
Famous “Market Rules to Remember”

Famous “Market Rules to Remember”

February 24, 2025 As the market remains frothy from a historical perspective, I encourage you to read some interesting points from Merrill Lynch’s former Chief Market Analyst, Bob Farrell. His famous “Market Rules to Remember” first appeared after the dot-com bubble...
Cheaper, Faster Government Is Not Guaranteed

Cheaper, Faster Government Is Not Guaranteed

February 17, 2025 You’ve probably heard of the new Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. While it offers long-term promise, it’s suffering some short-term peril. When it comes to spending, it almost doesn’t matter who gets elected president. That’s...