February 17, 2025
You’ve probably heard of the new Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. While it offers long-term promise, it’s suffering some short-term peril.
When it comes to spending, it almost doesn’t matter who gets elected president. That’s because Democrats and Republicans both typically grow spending, increase the national debt, and tempt the fires of inflation.
President Trump’s campaign promised he will increase spending in many areas as well. But it’s also proposing something truly novel – DOGE.
DOGE’s goal is to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies. The work is set to conclude no later than July 4, 2026, and aims for a smaller government with more efficiency and less bureaucracy.
(For now, I’ll sidestep the irony of an efficiency department having twice as many people in charge as any other department.)
DOGE’s leader Elon Musk claims to have found $2 trillion to remove from federal spending. Such a reduction for fiscal 2024 would have brought spending below the $4.9 trillion in taxes the government collected.
Unfortunately, that $2 trillion goal isn’t realistic.
Roughly 61% of federal spending is mandatory – legally required and it requires legislation to change. Another 26% is discretionary, so it’s easier to eliminate. The remaining 13% is national debt interest.
Defense spending is discretionary, and it’s doubtful that will shrink. President Trump raised it during his first term, and signs point to higher defense spending in his second term.
The promise of a cheaper, faster government is exciting, but it’s not guaranteed. All politicians make promises. Be skeptical, even when they address worthy goals.
Huge cuts to government spending will mean mass layoffs and early retirements. Perhaps smaller is better over the long haul, but it will create hardship and higher unemployment spending in the near term.