Tensions in the Sand Pile

Tensions in the Sand Pile

Monday, June 9 At the bottom of an hourglass, the pile of sand grows with each new grain. The cone shape looks stable, but it’s not. Under the surface, instable paths form that will eventually trigger a collapse once there’s enough weight. Markets and economies...
A Warning Sign from Consumers

A Warning Sign from Consumers

May 26, 2025 People have their favorite ways to evaluate economics. But I suggest you forget the twists of tariff policy and what pundits are saying on the news to instead focus on one thing. This one thing will help you gauge the health of the economy and influence...
The Federal Reserve’s Tools Might Be Ineffective

The Federal Reserve’s Tools Might Be Ineffective

May 12, 2025 The economy in the 2020s has not been boring. We’ve had a pandemic and inflation already. Now we have a trade war, recession fears, maybe more inflation, and capital flying out of U.S. dollar assets. In the past, the Federal Reserve would often step in to...
Stocks Were Bound to Correct

Stocks Were Bound to Correct

May 5, 2025 A lot has happened in the markets in 2025. But the truth is stocks were due to fall, whether from tariffs or something else. Not long ago, the stock market was trading at the highest prices measured against earnings. Stocks were more expensive than in 1929...
Wall Street Is Bad at Predictions

Wall Street Is Bad at Predictions

April 21, 2025 In 2022, Wall Street predicted stocks would rise 5%. Stocks fell 18%. In 2023, for seemingly the first time ever, Wall Street predicted stocks would fall. Instead, the S&P 500 soared 26%. In 2024, Wall Street aimed too low again, forecasting the...