Monday, October 20, 2025
The stock market has gained over 20% the last two years and over 14% so far this year. And yet, some people think it’s just getting started.
This market backdrop is about as bullish as it gets. Despite all the rate hikes of 2022, the Federal Reserve shifted to a more market-friendly tone lately. The central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at more rates to come.
Just before the Fed meeting, the Invesco QQQ Trust exchange-traded fund officially doubled since the launch of AI service ChatGPT. This ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, which includes the 100 largest non-financial companies in the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite. Including dividends, QQQ’s rise marks one of the fastest and most powerful runs in the history of large-cap tech.
And this recent rally has been driven by more than just hype. We’ve seen a tidal wave of real AI infrastructure investment and better than expected earnings across the board.
But investors remain scared when they should be chasing this strength. Too many folks are paralyzed by a new phenomenon around “fear of getting in” or FOGI. The opposite of the “fear of missing out” or FOMO, these investors are struggling with the fear of getting in.
They’re waiting for the next dip. They’re hoping for a pullback. They may think the biggest moves have happened.
Well, history shows they’re making a mistake.
Most assume that once a stock or an index doubles, the big gains are gone. But in strong, sustained bull markets, the opposite is often true.
Looking over 30 years of market history, a pattern is clear. That is, when a stock doubled during a bull market, it didn’t stop there. On average, the stock gained another 123% (without eliminating any outliers).
This doubling trend has played out time and again with individual stocks in the current bull market. Some think it’s over, while some think it’s just starting. This could be a melt up.