Every Trump Trade Deal is Temporary

Every Trump Trade Deal is Temporary

Monday, June 30 You may have noticed some recent changes in U.S. trade policy. Wall Street calmed down a bit after the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily reduce the astronomical tariff rates they imposed on each other, pending further negotiations. Same with Europe....
The Government’s Awful Debt Situation

The Government’s Awful Debt Situation

Monday, June 23 Moody’s finally arrived at the party as last month it became the last of the three major credit ratings to downgrade the elite status of U.S. debt (from Aaa to Aa1). The ratings agency cited the federal government’s growing budget deficit and...
The Bond Market Sees Something Different

The Bond Market Sees Something Different

Monday, June 16 The bond market isn’t buying the recovery. Stocks are recovering as Treasury yields keep rising. The recovery in equities since early April has been impressive, driven by the U.S. pulling back from a global trade war. As of this writing, the...
Tensions in the Sand Pile

Tensions in the Sand Pile

Monday, June 9 At the bottom of an hourglass, the pile of sand grows with each new grain. The cone shape looks stable, but it’s not. Under the surface, instable paths form that will eventually trigger a collapse once there’s enough weight. Markets and economies...
A Warning Sign from Consumers

A Warning Sign from Consumers

May 26, 2025 People have their favorite ways to evaluate economics. But I suggest you forget the twists of tariff policy and what pundits are saying on the news to instead focus on one thing. This one thing will help you gauge the health of the economy and influence...
Don’t Expect a V-Shaped Bottom

Don’t Expect a V-Shaped Bottom

May 19, 2025 Serious damage has been done to markets. The S&P 500 fell 21% by mid-April from its all-time high. Similarly, the Invesco QQQ Trust exchange-traded fund, which tracks big technology companies, has plunged 26%. Both major indices are now well below...