The Models No Longer Apply

May 11, 2020 I want to piggyback off last week’s post about our economic return to normalcy and present more evidence for a longer-than-anyone-wants recovery. How can we know what the recovery will be like with so many unknowns and no real idea of where the...

Economic Recoveries are Like Alphabet Soup

May 4, 2020 Economic recoveries often tend to take letter shapes on a graph. A V-shaped recovery is the best-case scenario. When that happens, recovery is as fast as the decline – hit the bottom and quickly back to business. U-shaped recoveries are middle of the road....

COVID-19 Infecting Economic Supply and Demand

April 27, 2020 There’s an obvious, yet profound, concept that explains why the economy is in danger. It is this – one person’s spending is another person’s income. This relationship is the essence of the $87 trillion global economy. The interplay between spending,...

The Global Debt Bubble is Waiting to Burst

March 23, 2020 Debt all over the world has been exploding. The behavior isn’t going to change. So, the question is – when will the bubble burst and spark a crisis? While final numbers aren’t in, forecasts show worldwide debt topped $255 trillion, which is a new...

The Wrath of the Butterfly

April 20, 2020 You may have heard of the “butterfly effect.” It’s when a small, seemingly insignificant change in a system can lead to large and unpredictable variation in that system over time. A common example of the concept is a butterfly flapping its wings in...

An American Sob Story

April 13, 2020 In a crisis, everything is stress-tested. That includes business models. Companies thought to be large enough to handle anything are being stretched to their limits. The COVID-19 crisis is illuminating the value of preparation and the steep costs of not...