Monday, November 3, 2025
Our U.S. bull market is celebrating another birthday. Yes, the stock market’s bull run we’re in just turned three.
The S&P 500 hit a bear market low on Oct. 12, 2022. If you remember, the Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates to combat inflation, which helped send the market into a 25% decline.
Since that low, the market has risen about 90%. And even though stocks keep making new highs, there are worries around an AI bubble, a weak labor market, President Trump’s tariffs, and more.
Despite all that, history shows that now might be a great time to buy stocks.
According to data from Yardeni Research, eight bull markets since aiWorld War II have hit their third birthday. On average, they lasted 6.8 years and returned more than 230%. It may be time to buy because we’re still quite far from both of those averages.
Also, we typically see big market gains in the fourth year of a bull market. Since 1947, bull markets have averaged gains of about 13% in their fourth year. The best fourth year gain is 30%. And perhaps reassuringly, the worst fourth-year performance was a small loss of 2%.
While it’s easy to see markets post three straight years of gains and feel like the good times can’t continue, think again. “Buy the dip” may be sound advice, but the data shows it’s also a profitable strategy to buy the high.