The Orange Swan

August 7, 2017 During our last fiscal meltdown, the Federal Reserve took drastic measures. It lowered interest rates to basically zero, took on an enormous Quantitative Easing (QE) program, and increased its balance sheet from $900 billion to $4.5...

The Fed “Unwind” May be a Tailspin

July 31, 2017 Leading up to 2007 – before the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing program and Zero Interest Rate Policy, the Fed held about $800 billion in its portfolio, or “balance sheet.” Today, the Fed has about $4.5 trillion on the balance sheet, much of which...

When Low Unemployment Can Be Bad News

July 24, 2017 We’re at or near full employment – or so the statistics say. Full employment generally means almost everyone who wants a job can get one, and the primary constraint on growth is the amount of labor available. Plentiful, abundant jobs with...

Indexing Error?

July 17, 2017 Picking stocks is an art form that is dying a passive death. I say “passive” because the influx of passive investing into the market has taken a lot of business from investment advisors.But investments that track the market, or segments of it, are a...

It Doesn’t Seem to Matter

July 10, 2017 We’re at market highs, yet like others, I’m reminded of Queen’s big hit, “Bohemian Rhapsody,” because it’s as if nothing really matters. I say that because several events of historical magnitude have failed to make any significant impact on the markets....