Gradually, then Suddenly

Gradually, then Suddenly

Monday, July 28 The U.S. bond market is flashing red. Using the Bloomberg U.S. aggregate bond index as a proxy, bonds are in their longest bear market in nearly 50 years. Data shows the maximum decline in that period is only 17.2%, however. That’s because the index...
A House of Cards Waiting to Fall

A House of Cards Waiting to Fall

Monday, July 21 Is the recession already here? Thanks to years of high inflation and interest rates, even Americans with jobs are struggling to pay for necessities. Consumer staples prices have soared. Everyone knows about the price of eggs, which have nearly tripled...
Investors are Missing the Real Impacts of Tariffs

Investors are Missing the Real Impacts of Tariffs

Monday, July 14 The tariff pause has pushed stocks up, pleasing investors. However, President Trump’s tariffs did nothing but stoke a flame that was already burning. We’re seemingly already in the early stages of a recession, and tariffs will only make...
Kicking the Can Down the Road

Kicking the Can Down the Road

Monday, July 7 On April 8, President Trump paused all reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. That is set to expire on July 8. As of this writing, the only trade deal we know about is with the U.K. That said, there may also be a deal with China, perhaps including 55% tariffs....
Every Trump Trade Deal is Temporary

Every Trump Trade Deal is Temporary

Monday, June 30 You may have noticed some recent changes in U.S. trade policy. Wall Street calmed down a bit after the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily reduce the astronomical tariff rates they imposed on each other, pending further negotiations. Same with Europe....